Source:
www.foxsports.com
Top flops: Beware of Hamlin
Michael Harmon / FOXSports.com
Posted: 24 hours ago
The 2007 season is now just more than two weeks away.
They're revving up for the big opening salvo at Daytona, where new baseball Hall of Famer Cal Ripken, Jr. will help to get things started. As we look ahead to the new campaign, I'm turning my eye to the overall effectiveness of drivers in terms of fantasy value on a weekly basis. In past columns, I've reviewed the changes that will impact the Nextel Cup circuit this season and posted my thoughts on some of the drivers fit to surprise in 2007.
This time out, I'm flipping the analysis 180 degrees to evaluate possible flop candidates for the coming season. Reviewing this part of the equation is certainly more difficult, as you're trying to go through the crystal ball, split stats and histories to locate those drivers whose performance may dip. And that dip may occur through no fault of their own. As we saw last season with Greg Biffle, sometimes luck has its way of taking a break. On the Nextel Cup circuit, you need to be both lucky and good to rise to the top of the pack.
Let's review several of the potential flops for 2007, a list that includes several of the top drivers from last season.
Moving to a new team and racing a reduced schedule will hamper Mark Martin's productivity in 2007. (Chris Trotman / FOXSports.com)
Denny Hamlin
Flop becomes a relative term here. After all, Hamlin set a ridiculous standard in his rookie season on the Nextel Cup circuit. He capped the year with five consecutive Top 10s (three Top 5s) to capture third place in the Chase. Hamlin raced to 27 top-15 finishes this season and 20 Top 10s. Hamlin's final two runs were positively spectacular with an average 24.5-position run-up over his qualifying slot. To put it simply, everything fell into place for Hamlin last season, a set of circumstances that will be difficult to repeat regardless of his skill level. The future looks bright for the No. 11 car and Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin will be a Chase mainstay for years to come barring some unforeseen circumstance, but expectations are lofty for 2007.
Jeff Burton
Burton posted his best season since 2000 with 20 Top 10s and four poles this season. He raced into the top 15 in 75 percent of the season's events to claim an average 14th-place finish. It was a charmed season for Burton, who more than tripled his number of top 10s from 2004 and 2005. Burton finished both of those seasons outside of the top 15 in the final point standings. I'm expecting a slowdown from Burton and for the No. 31 Chevy to slide backward in 2007. He'll still be a contender on a race-to-race basis, but I don't anticipate that he'll race atop the leaders again.
Mark Martin
Martin posted a tremendous final full season in the Nextel Cup Series. He raced into the Top 10 in the season-ending point standings for the third consecutive season and posted 15 Top 10 runs. Unfortunately, Martin wasn't able to carry his strong beginning to the season to the end, as he raced out of the top 15 in five of the final six Chase events.
The venerable driver will run a shortened season in 2007 for Ginn Racing. At this juncture, the plan is for him to run 15-20 races, with the option to run more as the season progresses. The big question facing Martin for 2007 concerns the impact of his departure from Roush Racing. Will he be able to retain his top-tier status without the garage resources of Roush? I believe that he'll have some great runs, but that his overall performance will take a step back.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick raced near the top of the heap all season, racing to new career-highs in wins (5), Top 5s (15) and Top 10s (20). It was a charmed season after finishing 14th in the point standings in two consecutive seasons and marked his third appearance in the Top 10 in six Nextel Cup campaigns. Harvick also made the most of his extra time on the track in the Busch Series, racing to nine victories and taking the title.
The 2007 promises to be an interesting one for Harvick and Richard Childress Racing, as they'll work to build on a successful campaign and avoid a backslide. I still expect Harvick to be a part of the expanded Chase, but a duplication of his phenomenal 2006 season seems unlikely.
Bobby Labonte
Labonte had a nice string of runs toward the end of the season, but his overall effort was uneven in 2006 with a number of changes in his garage. He claimed seven top 20s in his last nine starts and raced to eight Top 10s overall. However, Labonte also had a staggering total of 20 runs outside of the top 20 with eight races that he failed to finish. He has finished outside of the top 15 in the point standings in three of his last five seasons after seven consecutive Top 10 campaigns. I believe that Labonte will be a great spot starter in 2007, but that the unevenness of the No. 43 Petty Enterprises car will continue.
NASCAR's new rules awarding more points for wins may hurt Jimmie Johnson's bid to repeat as the circuit's No. 1 driver. (Doug Benc / Getty Images)
Jimmy Johnson
Johnson finally cleared that last hurdle to claim the Nextel Cup Championship with a phenomenal stretch of six consecutive Top 10s to end the season, including four second-place finishes and a win. It was the crowning moment of a five-year stretch during which he led all drivers with 110 Top 10 finishes.
One of the key areas of improvement for Johnson in 2006 was the fact that he completed 35 of 36 races. In the prior two seasons, Johnson hit the garage early a staggering total of 12 times.
And, that's the thing that stands out under the new rules of 2007. I do not believe that Johnson will fall precipitously from his lofty perch among the top drivers in the game. After all, he has now ranked in the Top 5 in the point standings in five consecutive seasons with 20 or more Top 10s in each season.
Rather, I believe that the new rules regarding bonus points for wins will change some of the strategy down the stretch. All drivers begin the race looking for a winning ride. But, at some point, the decision has to be made to change the strategy. Those decision points will come later this year, and more pushes for a victory will put those up front in jeopardy.
With that said, those planning out their starts for the fantasy racing season should just put Johnson down in ink as one of their drivers at Lowe's, where he flat out dominates.
Dale Jarrett
Jarrett will move behind the wheel of the all-new Toyota Camry for Michael Waltrip Racing in 2007. His energy level is up and the excitement of Jarrett and his team, as demonstrated in the marketing blitz about Toyota's entry to the Nextel Cup Series, is palpable. I believe that he'll be one of the most interesting drivers to watch this season based on these changes. Of course, everyone will be watching to see how quickly Toyota can ramp up to catch the competition. Jarrett has now finished 15th or worse in the points standings in four consecutive seasons (23rd last season). I believe that he'll see some great runs this season, but I'm not optimistic that the change pushes him back to his previous brilliance.
Linear Mode
