Source: www.foxsports.com

Top sleepers: Montoya could surprise

Mike Harmon / FOXSports.com
Posted: 9 days ago

The 2007 Nextel Cup season rapidly approaches and testing is already underway at Daytona.

Fans are clamoring for the latest news from practice runs and the garages, trying to gauge how the team of their favorite driver is clicking.

In this edition of my 2007 preview, I'm reviewing a number of the potential sleepers on the radar as we run toward Daytona. Some of these drivers have experienced great highs on the circuit in the past, while others are just beginning promising careers. Omitted from this list are those drivers who experienced up-and-down seasons in '06, such as Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards, as we're well aware of their championship aspirations and ability.

The only constant on the Nextel Cup Series is change, with drivers changing rides and the "Car of Tomorrow" and Toyota both making their debuts. With that in mind, I present my drivers to watch in 2007.

Top Sleepers

Casey Mears
Mears made a minor improvement in his average finish, bettering it by two spaces, but it meant a world of difference in the overall point standings. He rose eight slots to finish 14th in the standings on the strength of eight Top 10s with just two DNFs in his 36 starts. He was unable to sustain the momentum of his strong beginning to the season. He raced to three consecutive Top 10s to open the year, but experienced a rough patch after the All-Star challenge that pushed him down the rankings. He'll pilot the No. 25 car for Hendrick Motorsports this season, and I expect a more consistent effort and a possible push toward the expanded Chase for him.

Brian Vickers
After making a big leap in the standings from 2004 to 2005, many expected Vickers to take another huge step forward in 2006. Instead, he turned in virtually the same performance he did in 2005, which was good enough for 15th in the point standings, but wasn't nearly up to expectations. He'll be one of the more interesting drivers to watch in the upcoming season, as he'll switch teams and get behind a Toyota Camry. The learning curve will be accelerated with the new team and ride, and that could make for some early season struggles. If he can overcome these changes and find a comfort level early, Vickers could surprise this season.

Jamie McMurray
The 2006 season was a disaster for McMurray and the No. 26 Roush Ford. He raced to only seven Top 10s and dropped to 25th in the season-ending point standings after finishing in the top 15 in three consecutive years. He and the Roush team are getting back to basics over the short three-month off-season, which should make him a contender again in 2007. Remember, he raced to 23 Top 10s in 2004, so he's familiar with racing with the leaders.

Elliott Sadler
It was a difficult season for Sadler. He switched teams in-season and never truly found his stride. As a result, he dropped nine slots in the season-ending point standing. He finished 23rd in the point standings with only seven Top 10s after running to 12 Top 10s in 2005 and 14 of them in 2004. He has also raced into the Top 5 only twice in his last 72 starts after racing to eight Top 5s in 2004. I expect Sadler to be a more consistent contender this season with an additional three months of work with the Evernham Motorsports organization ahead of Daytona. He could be the big mover of the year.

J.J. Yeley
Yeley occasionally surprised fans and fantasy owners with some great runs in his rookie season. He nearly finished the season on a huge note, but the gas light reached empty and he finished 30th, claiming three Top 10s and 10 top 15s in his inaugural season for Joe Gibbs Racing. He also qualified inside the Top 10 on seven occasions, a great source of bonus points to offer fantasy owners. Look for Yeley to become a more consistent driver this season and to at least double his Top 10 total.

Ryan Newman
Newman struggled mightily in 2006 after four consecutive Top 10 finishes in the point standings. He remained one of the circuit's top drivers on qualifying day, but failed to translate that to race day lat year. He averaged a 12th-position qualifying slot, only to race to an average 21st-place finish (his worst average since 2001). He finished inside the top 15 only 16 times, and his last Top 10 occurred on August 26. Like Sadler, Newman is one of those drivers who has the tools to make a monumental leap back into the Chase mix off of a sub-par year.

Juan Pablo Montoya
The former Formula One star made his Nextel Cup debut at the Ford 400 in 2006 and ran well before an accident sent him to a 34th-place finish. He was looking at a possible top 12 finish before the accident. He drove to two top 15s in the Busch Series in four events toward the end of the year. Remember, those races were run among virtually all of the top drivers of the Nextel Cup Series. Montoya and Ganassi Racing spent the short off-season building teamwork and camaraderie. It's already paying dividends, as he recorded the fastest time in early testing at Daytona.

Paul Menard makes the full-time transition to the Nextel Cup Series this year after a successful season on the Busch level in '06. (Robert Laberge / Getty Images)

Paul Menard
After racing to a strong sixth-place finish in the Busch Series, Menard now joins the ranks of full-time Nextel Cup drivers. The rookie made seven Nextel Cup starts last season and rolled to four top 20s, including one Top 10 ride (seventh at Atlanta). He has the focus on him at DEI, as they look to expand the organization's success this season. One area of concern for the organization as a whole, however, is the lingering contract issues with Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Scott Riggs
Riggs improved markedly over his 2005 efforts, racing to eight Top 10s and an average 20th-place finish in 35 starts. He also improved 14 spots in the overall point standings to crack the top 20 in spite of a difficult final third of the season. He raced out of the top 20 in seven of his final 10 starts, but did close with a seventh-place run at Homestead-Miami. I believe he'll find more consistency this season and make a run toward the top 15.

My next preview piece for the 2007 season will review several drivers whom I expect will fall back to the pack somewhat after great 2006 seasons. Jeff Burton is certain to be on the list, and I suppose Mark Martin warrants mentioning with his shift of teams and schedule questions. Who else makes the list? Check out my "potential flops" for 2007 next week.